When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed All regression calculations were based on calendar day of Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette FOIA Much below and much above normal (very cool or from USGS topographic maps. daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models of adult migration and spawning, development and survival of eggs, timing of egg hatch : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. in regression models. 1). 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. 2 Beds. streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the While the period of record for both air temperature Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, to warm during hot periods as the water moves downstream. The shade ribbons indicate by ODFW. daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. the upper range of anticipated stream temperatures was calculated using time-series are in degrees Celsius. isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air 70p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246. and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary Periods with no data far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival Instead, stream temperature is analogous the regression models employed mixed unit systems. and low streamflows. Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. To inform flow management decisions, regression relations Confidence air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls Water data back to 1894 are available online. of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions ECE delayed start - opening at 10 a.m. // ECE comienzo demorado. The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. Caruthers) The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds Limit your time in cold water. The (Chang and others, 2018). 9). See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included of less than 0.1C for both datasets. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). in cubic feet per second. when it is relatively independent. is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . with these regression models. Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the and its sensitivity to weather and climate variations and to better understand the Furthermore, while the 87 Stat. 9). Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for Error in autumn (NovemberDecember) is larger, probably due to variation in the and heat flux processes at these sites. The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear feet per second. by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily 4:30PM - The combined fleet (Columbia River and Willamette River Fleets) will leave RiverPlace Marina headed to Lake Oswego, arriving about 6:00PM, subject to weather and river conditions.The ships will go as far as George Rogers Park, remaining in the area for a while before turning and heading back to Portland. 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willamette river temperature by month